An Introduction
Prevailing gold prices overwhelmingly drive gold mining profits and, looking at the performance of 4 gold mining category ETFs – producer, developer, explorer and royalty/streaming – relative to the current gold bullion price (referred here as the GE-to-GB or GE/GB Ratio) provide the extent of under- or over-evaluation of the stock category where the higher the ratio the better.
The GE/GB Ratio
The Ratio ended 2024 at a very low level and, historically, very low levels have always been followed by major gold stock up-legs – and gold miners tend to not only mean revert to normal GE/GB levels, but overshoot proportionally to the upside. The current Ratio is UP 11.7% YTD and that portends to a coming massive surge in gold stocks – and silver stocks, too.
The MunAiMarkets Gold/Silver ETFs Model Portfolio
- The VanEck GOLD Miners ETF (GDX): UP 31.2% YTD
- consists of producer companies that operate fully functioning mines that extract and sell gold
- # Holdings: 63
- Average Market Capitalization: $23.0B
- Ratio: UP 14.4% YTD
- The VanEck Junior GOLD Miners ETF (GDXJ): UP 29.2% YTD
- consists of developer companies that take over once explorers find a promising deposit conducting feasibility studies to determine if the deposit can be mined profitably, work on securing permits, financing, and planning the construction of the mine.
- # Holdings: 88
- Average Market Capitalization: $6.0B
- Ratio: UP 12.4% YTD
- The Sprott Junior GOLD Miners ETF (SGDJ): UP 23.6% YTD
- consists of explorer companies that are searching for new gold deposits
- # Holdings: 35
- Average Market Capitalization: $4.0M
- Ratio: UP 7.4% YTD
Sub-Total: GOLD ETFs UP 28.4% YTD on average; GE/GB Ratio UP 11.7% YTD
- The Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL): UP 24.4% YTD
- consists of explorer companies that are searching for new silver deposits by conducting geological surveys, drilling, and sampling and are referred to as “junior” mining companies.
- # Holdings: 35
- SIL to SLV Ratio: UP 9.1% YTD
In addition, below is how a representation of royalty/streaming company ETFs performed w/e March 14th and YTD:
- The U.S. Global GO GOLD and Precious Metal Miners ETF (GOAU): UP 27.3% YTD
- consists of companies (merchant “bankers) that provide alternative financing to mining companies by purchasing future production (i.e. streaming) or revenues (royalty) in exchange for upfront cash payments.
- # Holdings: 28
Summary
In total, the above 5 gold/silver related ETFs encompass 87% of the gold/silver ‘mining” sector (i.e. 253 companies) and they are UP 23.4% YTD.
In addition,
- The SPDR® Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is UP 15.0% YTD and the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) is UP 14.0% YTD for an average of +14.9% YTD.
