Introduction
This article is a follow-up to yesterday’s article entitled Take Note: Rare Earth Element Metal Import Restrictions By China On the U.S. Will Have Dire Consequences and is sourced in large part from an article by Jason Hamlin entitled 3 Ways to Profit from China’s Export Ban on Rare Earth Metals.
The trade war is starting to get real with China suspending the export of rare earth metals to the U.S. in retaliation to President Trump’s recent tariff hikes. That action will have major implications as China produces around 90% of the world’s rare earths and, coupled with the demand for rare earth elements which is expected to grow 400-600% over the next few decades, is likely to make prices climb higher as happened during 2010 when China halted REE exports to Japan over a territorial dispute causing global prices to spike as much at 10x!
What Are Rare Earth Elements?
“…Rare earth elements (REES) are a group of 17 elements comprising scandium, yttrium, and the lanthanides. The “rare” in rare earth elements came from frustrated 19th century chemists who decided they were uncommon after trying to isolate these chemically related elements. REES are also very hard to find in economic concentrations.
- The lanthanides are a group of 15 (cerium, dysprosium, erbium, europium, gadolinium, holmium, lanthanum, lutetium, neodymium, praseodymium, samarium, terbium, thorium, thulium, ytterbium) chemically similar elements with atomic numbers 57 through 71, inclusive.
- The lanthanides are divided into light rare elements (LREE), and heavy rare earth elements (HREE).
- Light REEs are made up of the first seven elements of the lanthanide series: lanthanum (La, atomic number 57), cerium (Ce, atomic number 58), praseodymium (Pr, atomic number 59), neodymium (Nd, atomic number 60) promethium (Pm, atomic number 61) and samarium (Sm, atomic number 62) of which the first four REEs — La, Ce, Pr, and Nd — constitute 80 to 99% of the total.
- Practically all light REEs are extracted from bastnasite and monazite, while the heavy REE comes from xenotime and ionic clays…
- HREEs are made up of the higher atomic numbered elements — europium (EU, atomic number 63), gadolinium (Gd, atomic number 64), terbium (TB, atomic number 65), dysprosium (Dy, atomic number 66), holmium (Ho, atomic number 67), ebium (Er, atomic number 68), thulium (Tm, atomic number 69), ytterbium (Yb, atomic number 70) and lutetium (Lu, atomic number 71).
- Ion-adsorbed REEs in clays from South China provide the bulk of HREE to the market.
- Yttrium isn’t a lanthanide but is included in the rare earths because it often occurs with them in nature — it has similar chemical properties. Scandium is also included in the group although it usually occurs only in minor amounts.
U.S.-based Rare Earth “Miners”
Trump has invoked emergency powers to boost the ability of U.S.-based rare earth miners to produce critical minerals as part of a broad effort to ramp up the development of domestic natural resources to reduce reliance on imports from China and elsewhere. In addition to benefiting from higher rare earth prices, U.S.-based rare earth miners are likely to benefit from increased government support in the form of grant, low-interest loans and the fast-tracking of permits and licenses. This is necessary for the United States strategically to have domestic supplies of critical metals that are needed for our economy and military, especially if China’s export ban has longevity.
Given the bullish outlook above, here are the stocks of 3 U.S.-based rare earth miners that could benefit from China’s export restrictions:
- MP Materials (MP):
- MP is the only rare-earth mining and processing facility in the United States and its capabilities span the entire supply chain—from mining and processing to advanced metallization and magnet manufacturing.
- The company delivered record production in 2024 while advancing key strategic initiatives in midstream and magnetics operations and revenue for Q4 2024 reached $61M, up 48% year-over-year, driven by increased sales of separated rare earth products but profit margins are weak with Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.12.
- The share price is up 81% year-to-date as of April 16th.
- Rare Element Resources (REEMF):
- The Bear Lodge Project area is a significant mineralized district that contains one of the largest disseminated rare earth deposits in North America containing many of the less common, more valuable rare earths and Rare Element Resources owns 100% of the Project.
- During the last few years, the company has been advancing their proprietary extraction/separation technology and have successfully produced commercial-grade neodymium/praseodymium (Nd/Pr) oxide in pilot-plant testing. The next step will be operations of a demonstration plant, which is currently under construction. Results generated from operating this plant will be used for the design and economic evaluation of a commercial rare earth processing facility.
- Shares are up 175% year-to-date in 2025.
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USA Rare Earth (USAR):
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The company is in the process of building a magnet manufacturing facility which is currently planned to go commercial in the first half of 2026 which, at full capacity, will be able to produce nearly 5,000 metric tons annually to serve a variety of fast-growing industries, such as defense, robotics, electric vehicles, wind power, appliances, cordless tools and even computing and semiconductors.
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The company’s Innovations Lab is being commissioned currently and will begin prototyping to customers this quarter (Q2, 2025).
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They have developed a proprietary Continuous Ion Exchange process for rare earth and critical mineral separation and have offtake agreements in place with partners in the United States and South Korea.
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Their unique Round Top deposit in West Texas, owned 80% in conjunction with Texas Mineral Resources Corp (TMRC), hosts 15 of the 17 rare earth elements, including all heavy rare earth elements, as well as other high-tech metals such as gallium, hafnium, zirconium, beryllium and lithium
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USAR is up 33% year-to-date and also has warrants listed under USARW that are up 165% in the past 5 days alone! TMRC is up 145% year-to- date.
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- United States Antimony (UAMY):
- China controls over 90% of the world’s antimony production, leading to concerns about supply security and price volatility. In December 2024, China banned exports of gallium, germanium, and antimony to the United States. The global supply of antimony is tightening at a time when demand is accelerating – driven by renewed defense initiatives and the global energy transition.
- UAMY is the only U.S. producer of antimony and is positioned to benefit from rising demand in defense, EV batteries, and flame retardants and operates the only significant antimony smelter in the United States which is in a “sold out” condition. They highlighted a 72% increase in revenues in FY 2024 to $14.9 million, accompanied by a 204% growth in gross profit.
- Just yesterday, B. Riley Securities, Inc. raised their price target on UAMY from $3.00 to $5.00 and its currently trading at $3.45. The share price is up 95% year to date.
